- Title
- Climate change increases the potential for extreme wildfires
- Creator
- Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Evans, Jason P.; Blake, Stephanie A. P.; Armstrong, Matthew; Dowdy, Andrew J.; Sharples, Jason; McRae, Rick
- Relation
- Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 46, Issue 14, p. 8517-8526
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083699
- Publisher
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2019
- Description
- Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) wildfires cause devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire‐atmosphere coupling is associated with pyroCbs, future changes in coincident high index values of atmospheric instability and dryness (C‐Haines) and near‐surface fire weather are assessed for southeastern Australia using a regional climate projection ensemble. We show that observed pyroCb events occur predominantly on forested, rugged landscapes during extreme C‐Haines conditions, but over a wide range of surface fire weather conditions. Statistically significant increases in the number of days where both C‐Haines and near‐surface fire weather values are conducive to pyroCb development are projected across southeastern Australia, predominantly for November (spring), and less strongly for December (summer) in 2060‐2079 versus 1990‐2009, with future C‐Haines increases linked to increased 850‐hPa dewpoint depression. The increased future occurrence of conditions conducive to pyroCb development and their extension into spring have implications for mitigating these dangerous wildfires and urbanizing fire‐prone landscapes.
- Subject
- atmospheric instability; dewpoint depression; fire weather; natural hazards; pyrocumulonimbus; regional climate modeling
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1409732
- Identifier
- uon:36053
- Identifier
- ISSN:0094-8276
- Rights
- This is the peer reviewed version of above article, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1029/2019GL083699. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
- Language
- eng
- Full Text
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